Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-15 68.589246 77.441153 87.732943 100.773293 117.143128 137.428128 1.651747e+02
2024-12-22 54.191224 64.359749 77.232483 95.288742 120.997342 158.194825 2.204960e+02
2024-12-29 49.509991 61.116495 76.828183 100.831416 139.154271 203.974200 3.414624e+02
2025-01-05 44.518889 56.309590 72.975350 99.950961 146.730232 236.245667 4.720330e+02
2025-01-12 40.306020 51.868440 68.728051 97.218033 149.919050 261.788625 6.250064e+02
2025-01-19 36.388012 47.350521 63.662962 92.032384 146.907606 272.591047 7.580203e+02
2025-01-26 35.570726 47.245360 65.287208 98.442648 168.573061 357.856990 1.515092e+03
2025-02-02 34.908850 47.260897 67.046399 105.430232 194.544490 485.854722 4.456501e+03
2025-02-09 33.453395 45.868265 66.239488 107.271232 209.230191 598.884073 1.902787e+04
2025-02-16 31.745015 43.910176 64.211157 106.213296 215.982176 692.284880 1.964971e+06
2025-02-23 30.205984 42.101301 62.246739 104.932739 221.766233 796.938349 NaN
2025-03-02 28.582426 40.036768 59.623532 101.787400 220.876996 863.722024 NaN
2025-03-09 27.285576 38.504884 57.969903 100.892476 228.223451 1031.370101 NaN
2025-03-16 25.548406 36.134462 54.581911 95.562349 219.016455 1039.444432 NaN
2025-03-23 25.253132 36.187893 55.742733 101.144559 251.581464 1698.073308 NaN
2025-03-30 24.268738 34.979558 54.356624 100.260897 259.431059 2153.142871 NaN
2025-04-06 23.177783 33.519970 52.356851 97.514818 258.452338 2470.547383 NaN
2025-04-13 21.920191 31.706343 49.536252 92.304645 244.929298 2358.274408 NaN
2025-04-20 21.896871 32.068436 51.070553 98.745345 288.362910 5890.086228 NaN
2025-04-27 21.879698 32.436390 52.654768 105.767426 343.788829 41350.626579 NaN
2025-05-04 21.418961 31.963838 52.436183 107.617740 373.112254 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 20.764797 31.098015 51.307598 106.554440 383.305349 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 20.136833 30.251189 50.160431 105.267432 391.573394 NaN NaN